Monday’s explanation of how the votes are counted and Oscar nominations are determined raised lots of questions, which is hardly surprising: it’s a difficult process to grasp, and an even more difficult one to explain.
And when you think you have it straight, they throw another complication at you: magic numbers that change! The surplus rule!
So this will be an attempt to answer a few of the questions asked by readers of theWrap, and by some folks on other sites that linked to or summarized the story.
And if, in the process of trying to provide some answers, I make the whole thing sound even more confusing … well, welcome to the wonderful world of Oscar ballot counting.
First, a Wrap reader who goes by Gnosis wanted a few of the wrinkles explained:
“In your simulation, where 500 votes are required, it is also possible that 55 films could receive 100 votes each and there are no first round winners. That is clearly unlikely but it seems VERY likely that no film could come out of the first round, and so I assume that the lowest #1 vote getter might get reassigned right out of the gate.”
It is not only possible to have no first-round nominees, it is probable in many categories. The PricewaterhouseCoopers folks have told me that it’s most common to have first-round nominees in categories with a relatively small pool of voters, like cinematography. With 10 best picture nominees instead of five, the threshold for that nomination has been lowered so dramatically that I expect they’ll have first-round nominees – but in many other categories, I’m sure they’ll have to go to the second or third round before anybody hits the magic number.
So yes, the films with the fewest number one votes will likely be eliminated, and their votes reassigned, in many cases before any nominations have been secured.
Gnosis continues:
“Of course, it is also possible that many of those initially reassigned votes might have NONE of the #1s on the rest of its list - just check some of the critics who disdain all mainstream films. I assume that the critical number is lowered as we go.”
Again, yes. Eventually, some ballots will have to be discarded, because they won’t contain the names of any eligible films. And as those ballots are discarded, they do lower the number required to secure a nomination.
Over at Hollywood-Elsewhere, Jeff Wells has a bout of wishful thinking:
“To a guy who's always had trouble with numbers, this seems to mean that if ‘Precious’ doesn't end up with 501 Academy members (i.e., one tenth of the membership plus one) listing it as their top Best Picture choice, it won't emerge as one of the ten finalists.”
Sorry, but it doesn’t need 501 first-place votes, just 500 (or fewer; the magic number gets smaller as the count goes on) first place votes, or second place votes on ballots whose first choice has already been eliminated or nominated, or third-place votes on ballots whose first two choices are out of the running, or fourth-place votes … Most nominated films will get there with a mixture of first, second, third, and maybe even fourth or fifth-place votes.
