When the first round of fall film festivals wrapped up over the weekend, the Oscar picture was supposed to have been cleared up considerably.
But was it?
Well … yes and no.
We learned the answers to some questions about the Oscar race at Telluride, Venice and Toronto. We learned, for instance, that Carey Mulligan, left, is indeed a formidable best-actress contender in “An Education.” (Photo: Kerry Brown/Sony Pictures Classics)
But we also learned that we don’t know the answers to many other questions, some of them pretty crucial.
Here, then, is my take on What We Learned at the Festivals:
1) “Up in the Air” is a genuine contender. Jason Reitman’s movie came into the festivals with perhaps the biggest buzz and greatest expectations, and with few exceptions it won over fans and critics and secured its position as a sure best-picture contender … and maybe even that dreaded target, the Frontrunner.
2) “Precious” is for real, too. The audience winner at Sundance, now the audience winner at Toronto, recipient of a big boost (and several shows worth of free promotion) from Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ film seems to pack a big enough emotional wallop to find itself in the thick of the race.
3) “A Serious Man” is still a serious question mark. Coming into Toronto, the Coen Brothers film seemed too slight, too jokey to be a real contender. The early reviews didn’t change that impression … and then, all of a sudden, enough people started swooning and saying it was the year’s best picture to give it real awards credibility.
Its reception at the boxoffice and within the Academy will tell the tale – and let’s face it, while it might be too Jewish to play well in middle America, it can hardly be too Jewish for the Academy.
4) The field is full of problematic movies that wouldn’t be in the running if it weren't for those five extra best-picture nominations up for grabs. In a normal year, would movies like “A Single Man” and “The Road” and “Bright Star” have serious shots? Maybe not. This year? They sure do.
5) At film festivals, great performances in little movies can look like sure awards contenders … Robert Duvall in “Get Low,” Annette Bening in “Mother and Child,” Viggo Mortensen in “The Road,” Colin Firth in “A Single Man,” Abbie Cornish in “Bright Star,” Carey Mulligan in “An Education” … They’re all brilliant (I can only vouch for Mortensen, Cornish and Mulligan, but that’s what I hear about the others, too), and they all ought to be in the thick of the race.
6) … but once those festivals end, you need an extra boost to keep up the momentum. Academy voters, after all, seem almost contractually obligated to fill the acting categories with a handful of performances from big stars in big-studio movies, squeezing out some of the indies.
