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So far this year, Ana de Armas, nominated for her role as Marilyn Monroe in “Blonde,” leads the field with nearly 38 times the average talent demand, according to Parrot Analytics‘ data, which takes into account consumer research, streaming, downloads and social media, among other engagement.

But while at first glance de Armas appears to have the edge in the contest for the Academy Award for Best Actress, if we dig deeper into the data, the story gets more complicated.

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Michelle Yeoh of “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is close behind de Armas with 30.8 times average demand, which is well ahead of third-ranked Cate Blanchett, who starred in “Tár.” 

De Armas has had the highest demand among nominees for most of the year. She and Yeoh saw dramatic spikes in demand following the Golden Globes on Jan. 10 and after the Oscar nominations were announced on Jan. 24.

However, Yeoh has clearly gained momentum after her history-making win at the SAG Awards going into the Oscars. Her euphoric SAG acceptance speech put her at the center of the conversation for days and set her demand on an upward trajectory: It more than tripled from the day before her SAG win through last Sunday. A late surge like this may have proved helpful in winning over any Academy members who were on the fence until voting closed on Tuesday.

One other area where Yeoh may have a leg up on the competition is the positive sentiment audiences have for her —  the most positive sentiment for any Best Actress nominee this year. While de Armas had greater demand, she was also a more divisive actress and the attention she drew was not as positive.

Notably, Andrea Riseborough was the only one of the nominees to have a net negative sentiment. The actress drew a bit of a controversy with her nomination for her role in “To Leslie” after it appeared that there was a coordinated campaign by A-List actors to tip the scales in her favor, even as other favorites like Viola Davis failed to secure a nomination.

Looking at the ranking of Best Actress nominees by sentiment may point to Yeoh’s fiercest competition in this category, the ever-formidable Cate Blanchett. Already a two-time Oscar winner, Blanchett won critical acclaim for her role as a famous conductor in “Tár.” In this regard at least, the public and critics share highly positive views about Blanchett. Will that be enough to propel her to a third Oscar win or will Yeoh’s momentum carry her across the finish line? We’ll find out on Sunday night.

Christofer Hamilton is a senior insights analyst at Parrot Analytics, a WrapPRO partner. For more from Parrot Analytics, visit the Data and Analysis Hub.

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