The Primetime Emmy Awards are coming, but this year you can leave the brooms at home.
True, the Emmys are coming off two consecutive years of sweeps. In 2020, the final season of “Schitt’s Creek” won all four comedy acting categories plus writing, directing and Outstanding Comedy Series, the first series to ever go 7-for-7 in its field. And last year, “The Crown” did the same thing in the drama-series categories, becoming the first drama to ever sweep all its top categories.
Especially in recent years, voters in the Television Academy have shown a curious tunnel vision in their choices, giving nominations and awards to the same shows over and over. This year’s nominations were no exception, with HBO’s “Succession” landing a record 14 acting nominations and shows like Apple TV+’s “Ted Lasso” and HBO’s “The White Lotus” also piling up the noms.
But when it comes to the awards that’ll be handed out this Monday night, genre sweeps are impossible because there’s not a single drama, comedy or limited series nominated in all seven top categories. “Succession,” the odds-on favorite in drama, is missing a lead actress nomination; “Ted Lasso,” the reigning champ in comedy, is similarly missing lead actress; and “The White Lotus,” the most honored limited series, only has acting contenders in the supporting categories.
So voters will have no choice but to spread the love this year. As a result, “Succession” could find itself in a battle with Netflix’s Korean sensation “Squid Game,” “Ted Lasso” will be up against the formidable first-year comedies “Abbott Elementary” from ABC and “Only Murders in the Building” from Hulu — while “The White Lotus” can’t sweep aside Hulu’s “Dopesick.”
Here are our best guesses as to which shows and people will emerge triumphant on Emmy night, with the caveat that the Emmys almost always throw in a handful of real surprises.
And click over for our analysis for each category.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
“Abbott Elementary”
“Barry”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm”
“Hacks”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“Ted Lasso”
“What We Do in the Shadows”
Predicted Winner: “Ted Lasso”
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
Donald Glover, “Atlanta”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
Nicholas Hoult, “The Great”
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Predicted Winner: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Quinta Brunson, “Abbot Elementary”
Kaley Cuoco, “The Flight Attendant”
Elle Fanning, “The Great”
Issa Rae, “Insecure”
Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Predicted Winner: Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
Anthony Carrigan, “Barry”
Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso”
Toheeb Jimoh, “Ted Lasso”
Nick Mohammed, “Ted Lasso”
Tony Shalhoub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
Henry Winkler, “Barry”
Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
Predicted Winner: Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso”
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”
Sarah Niles, “Ted Lasso”
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
Juno Temple, “Ted Lasso”
Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso”
Predicted Winner: Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso”
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
“Atlanta” – “New Jazz,” Hiro Murai
“Barry” – “710N,” Bill Hader
“Hacks” – “There Will Be Blood,” Lucia Aniello
“The Ms. Pat Show” – “Baby Daddy Groundhog Day,” Mary Lou Belli
“Only Murders in the Building” – “The Boy from 6B,” Cherien Dabis
“Only Murders in the Building” – “True Crime,” Jamie Babbitt
“Ted Lasso” – “No Weddings and a Funeral,” MJ Delaney
Predicted Winner: “Barry” – “710N,” Bill Hader
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees:
“Abbott Elementary” – “Pilot,” Quinta Brunson
“Barry” – “710N,” Duffy Boudreau
“Barry” – “starting now,” Alec Berg and Bill Hader
“Hacks” – “The One, the Only,” Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky
“Only Murders in the Building” – “True Crime,” Steve Martin and John Hoffman
“Ted Lasso” – “No Weddings and a Funeral,” Jane Becker
“What We Do in the Shadows” – “The Casino,” Sarah Naftalis
“What We Do in the Shadows” – “The Wellness Center,” Stefani Robinson
Predicted Winner: “Only Murders in the Building” – “True Crime,” Steve Martin and John Hoffman
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
“Better Call Saul”
“Euphoria”
“Ozark”
“Severance”
“Squid Game”
“Stranger Things”
“Succession”
“Yellowjackets”
Predicted Winner: “Succession”
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Brian Cox, “Succession”
Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Adam Scott, “Severance”
Jeremy Strong, “Succession”
Predicted Winner: Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game”
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”
Laura Linney, “Ozark”
Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”
Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”
Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show”
Zendaya, “Euphoria”
Predicted Winner: Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Nicholas Braun, “Succession”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Park Hae-soo, “Squid Game”
Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
John Turturro, “Severance”
Christopher Walken, “Severance”
Oh Yeong-su, “Squid Game”
Predicted Winner: Oh Yeong-su, “Squid Game”
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
Patricia Arquette, “Severance”
Julia Garner, “Ozark”
Jung Ho-yeon, “Squid Game”
Christina Ricci, “Yellowjackets”
Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul”
J. Smith-Cameron, “Succession”
Sarah Snook, “Succession”
Sydney Sweeney, “Euphoria”
Predicted Winner: Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul”
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
“Ozark” – “A Hard Way to Go,” Jason Bateman
“Severance” – “The Way We Are,” Ben Stiller
“Squid Game” – “Red Light, Green Light,” Hwang Dong-hyuk
“Succession” – “All the Bells Say,” Mark Mylod
“Succession” – “The Disruption,” Cathy Yan
“Succession” – “Too Much Birthday,” Lorene Scafaria
“Yellowjackets” – “Pilot,” Karyn Kusama
Predicted Winner: Hwang Dong-hyuk, “Squid Game”
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees:
“Better Call Saul” – “Plan and Execution,” Thomas Schnauz
“Ozark” – “A Hard Way to Go,” Chris Mundy
“Severance” – “The We We Are,” Dan Erickson
“Squid Game” – “One Lucky Day,” Hwang Dong-hyuk
“Succession” – “All the Bells Say,” Jesse Armstrong
“Yellowjackets” – “F Sharp,” Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson
“Yellowjackets” – “Pilot,” Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson
Predicted Winner: “Succession” – “All the Bells Say,” Jesse Armstrong
OUTSTANDING LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES
Nominees:
“Dopesick”
“The Dropout”
“Inventing Anna”
“Pam & Tommy”
“The White Lotus”
Predicted Winner: “The White Lotus”
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Nominees:
Colin Firth, “The Staircase”
Andrew Garfield, “Under the Banner of Heaven”
Oscar Isaac, “Scenes from a Marriage”
Michael Keaton, “Dopesick”
Himesh Patel, “Station Eleven”
Sebastian Stan, “Pam and Tommy”
Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton, “Dopesick”
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Nominees:
Toni Collette, “The Staircase”
Julia Garner, “Inventing Anna”
Lily James, “Pam and Tommy”
Sarah Paulson, “Impeachment: American Crime Story”
Margaret Qualley, “Maid”
Amanda Seyfried, “The Dropout”
Predicted Winner: Amanda Seyfried, “The Dropout”
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Nominees:
Murray Bartlett, “The White Lotus”
Jake Lacy, “The White Lotus”
Will Poulter, “Dopesick”
Seth Rogen, “Pam & Tommy”
Peter Sarsgaard, “Dopesick”
Michael Stuhlbarg, “Dopesick”
Steve Zahn, “The White Lotus”
Predicted Winner: Murray Bartlett, “The White Lotus”
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Nominees:
Connie Britton, “The White Lotus”
Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”
Alexandra Daddario, “The White Lotus”
Kaitlyn Dever, “Dopesick”
Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”
Sydney Sweeney, “The White Lotus”
Mare Winningham, “Dopesick”
Predicted Winner: Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Nominees:
“Dopesick” – “The People vs. Purdue Pharma,” Danny Strong
“The Dropout” – “Green Juice,” Michael Showalter
“The Dropout” – “Iron Sisters,” Francesca Gregorini
“Maid” – “Sky Blue,” John Wells
“Station Eleven” – “Wheel of Fire,” Hiro Murai
“The White Lotus” – entire series, Mike White
Predicted Winner: Mike White, “The White Lotus”
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Nominees:
“Dopesick” – “The People vs. Purdue Pharma,” Danny Strong
“The Dropout” – “I’m in a Hurry,” Elizabeth Meriwether
“Impeachment: American Crime Story” – “Man Handled,” Sarah Burgess
“Maid” – “Snaps,” Molly Smith Metzler
“Station Eleven” – “Unbroken Circle,” Patrick Somerville
“The White Lotus” – entire series, Mike White
Predicted Winner: Mike White, “The White Lotus”
OUTSTANDING COMPETITION PROGRAM
Nominees:
“The Amazing Race”
“Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Girls”
“Nailed It!”
“RuPaul’s Drag Race”
“Top Chef”
“The Voice”
Predicted Winner: “RuPaul’s Drag Race”
OUTSTANDING VARIETY TALK SERIES
Nominees:
“The Daily Show with Trevor Noah”
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”
“Late Night with Seth Meyers”
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert”
Predicted Winner: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
Nominees:
“A Black Lady Sketch Show”
“Saturday Night Live”
Predicted Winner: “Saturday Night Live”
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
Nominees:
“Ali Wong: Dong Wong,” Ali Wong
“The Daily Show With Trevor Noah Presents: Jordan Klepper Fingers the Globe – Hungary for Democracy,” Ian Berger, Devin Delliquanti, Jennifer Flanz, Jordan Klepper, Zhubin Parang, Scott Sherman
“Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel,” Jerrod Carmichael
“Nicole Byer: BBW (Big Beautiful Weirdo),” Nicole Byer
“Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special,” Norm Macdonald
Predicted Winner: “Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special”
