We pick five races where surprises could be lurking, including Best Actor and Best Director
Steve Pond | February 12, 2015 @ 4:32 PM
Last Updated: February 12, 2015 @ 5:02 PM
AWARDS BEAT
Wes Anderson by Getty Images
The Oscar Best Picture race may be a real nail-biter this year, but we know what’s going to happen in other categories, right?
Eddie Redmayne or Michael Keaton is going to win Best Actor, Julianne Moore Best Actress, J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette the supporting awards. “Birdman” will win cinematography, “Boyhood” will win editing, “Selma” will win song, “The Grand Budapest Hotel” will win production design …
But here’s something else you can bet on: At some point during the night on Feb. 22, we’ll be surprised. Not by how John Travolta pronounces, say, “Benedict Cumberbatch,” but by who wins what.
Upsets are always possible and sometimes almost inevitable, and a year as unsettled as this one is bound to produce a few. So here are five races that just might go in an odd direction, and five people or films who could find themselves unexpectedly on the stage of the Dolby Theatre.
Note: I’m not including any possible surprises in the Best Picture category, because that race is so tight that almost nothing would surprise me.
Another note: Just because I say these upsets are possible doesn’t mean I think they’re going to happen. I may pick one or two of these longshots to win when I make my final predictions next week, but it’s just as likely that I’ll be going for the favorites in all these categories.
I’m just saying that that there could be surprises.
Bradley Cooper — Best Actor, “American Sniper” Although the Best Actor race is presumed to be a close battle between Eddie Redmayne for “The Theory of Everything” and Michael Keaton for “Birdman,” this is the surprise that might be least surprising, because it’s been frequently mentioned as a possibility.
That’s because while Redmayne and Keaton have been squaring off at one awards show after another for the last month — the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, the Screen Actors Guild Awards, BAFTA — they have never been on the same ballot with Cooper.
“American Sniper” was released too late in the year to be seen by the SAG Nominating Committee, meaning that Cooper’s physically transformative performance hasn’t really been a factor until the Oscar voting. We know how much Oscar voters love transformations, and we know how much attention “American Sniper” has garnered (and how much money it has made) in recent weeks.
That makes Cooper, riding his third consecutive Oscar nomination, a powerful wild card indeed.
Wes Anderson — Best Director, “The Grand Budapest Hotel” “The Grand Budapest Hotel” tied with “Birdman” for the most Oscar nominations, nine, and it’s considered the favorite to win in categories like Production Design and Costume Design. But when it comes to the more high-profile categories, writer-director Wes Anderson is likely to have the best shot in Best Original Screenplay, where he stands a good chance of beating “Boyhood” and “Birdman” in a brutally competitive category.
But what about Best Director? “Budapest” has been a real sleeper this awards season, and affection for it is enormous. In contrast to the Best Picture category, where the preferential vote-counting system makes it almost impossible for two films to “split the vote” and a third to steal the victory, the director category is far more straightforward: you vote for one candidate, and the guy with the most votes wins. A split vote could conceivably allow Anderson (or Eastwood, for that matter) to score a big surprise here.
“Big Hero 6” — Best Animated Feature In all the pundits’ polls, “How to Train Your Dragon 2” is seen as a prohibitive favorite in this category. And it did win the top honor at the Annie Awards, the top honor in the animation field, where it went head-to-head against “Big Hero 6.” But in recent years, the Annies have been kinder to DreamWorks Animation’s films than the Academy has: “Shrek” won the first animated Oscar ever, in 2002, but DWA hasn’t returned to the winner’s circle since then.
And in a couple of key contests, the BAFTAs and the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, the battle between “Dragon” and “Hero” was complicated by the presence of “The Lego Movie,” which won. With “Lego” surprisingly out of the picture at the Oscars, could Academy voters opt for Disney/Pixar for the ninth time, instead of DreamWorks for the second? Yes, they could.
“Virunga” — Best Documentary The category has a history of celebrating the most emotional documentary, not the most cerebral. “The Inside Job” won in 2011, but look at what’s come out on top since then: “Undefeated,” “Searching for Sugar Man” and “20 Feet From Stardom.”
“Citizenfour” feels as if it’s the most important film, and the timeliest, and it has swept all the other doc awards. Most likely it’ll win the Oscar, too — but particularly with a third act that is seen by many as the film’s biggest weakness, could it be vulnerable to “Virunga,” the film that packs a bigger emotional punch? Yes, it could: With a story that both tugs at your heartstrings and awakens social outrage, and with a huge push by Netflix behind it, “Virunga” has some late momentum.
“Timbuktu” — Best Foreign Language Film It’s hard to say that there could be a real surprise in the foreign-language category, where “Ida” is the presumed leader in a close race that could go to almost any of the nominees.
Under the old rules that restricted voting to members who’d seen all five nominees in a theater, “Wild Tales” would have a real shot – the black Argentinian comedy has played like gangbusters in front of audiences from Cannes to its official Academy screening. But most Academy voters will likely be watching these nominees on the screeners they’ve received from the Academy – and at home on DVD, “Wild Tales” could well lose a little of its impact. So could another top contender, “Leviathan,” which might require a bit too much patience from viewers who are surrounded by potential distractions.
That could help “Ida,” which plays well on screeners. But it could also help “Timbuktu,” which packs a real punch in the way it chronicles a village taken over by inflexible Islamic fundamentalists. And given the news coming out of the Middle East about ISIS, Mauritania’s first-ever submission could appear to be the right movie at the right time.
Oscars 2015: The Nominees (Photos)
Best Motion Picture of the Year: “American Sniper," “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” “Boyhood" (pictured), "The Grand Budapest Hotel," “The Imitation Game" (pictured), “Selma" (pictured), “The Theory of Everything," “Whiplash”
Paramount/IFC/The Weinstein Company
Best Director: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” Alejandro G. Iñárritu; “Boyhood,” Richard Linklater (pictured); “Foxcatcher” Bennett Miller; “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Wes Anderson; “The Imitation Game,” Morten Tyldum
Getty Images
Best Animated Feature Film: “Big Hero 6,” Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli; “The Boxtrolls” (pictured), Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight; “How to Train Your Dragon 2,” Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold; “Song of the Sea” Tomm Moore and Paul Young “The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura
Focus Features
Best Original Screenplay: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo; “Boyhood" by Richard Linklater; “Foxcatcher” by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman; “The Grand Budapest Hotel” by Wes Anderson, story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness; “Nightcrawler” (pictured) by Dan Gilroy
Open Road Films
Best Adapted Screenplay: “American Sniper” by Jason Hall, “The Imitation Game” (pictured) by Graham Moore; “Inherent Vice” by Paul Thomas Anderson; “The Theory of Everything” by Anthony McCarten; “Whiplash” by Damien Chazelle
The Weinstein Company
Best Foreign Language Film: “Ida,” (pictured) Poland; “Leviathan,” Russia; “Tangerines,” Estonia; “Timbuktu,” Mauritania; “Wild Tales,” Argentina
Music Box Films
Best Documentary Feature: "Citizenfour," "Finding Vivian Maier," "Last Days in Vietnam," "Salt of the Earth," "Virunga" (pictured)
Netflix
Best Film Editing: "American Sniper" (pictured), "Boyhood," "Grand Budapest Hotel," Imitation Game," Whiplash"
Warner Bros.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role: Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher," Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper," Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Imitation Game," Michael Keaton (pictured) in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)," Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”
Getty Images
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role: Robert Duvall in “The Judge,” Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood," Edward Norton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)," Mark Ruffalo in “Foxcatcher," J.K. Simmons (pictured) in “Whiplash”
Getty Images
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role: Marion Cotillard in “Two Days, One Night,” Felicity Jones (pictured) in “The Theory of Everything," Julianne Moore in “Still Alice," Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl," Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”
Getty Images
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood," Laura Dern in “Wild," Keira Knightley (pictured) in “The Imitation Game," Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)," Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”
Getty Images
Achievement in Cinematography: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” Emmanuel Lubezki; “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (pictured), Robert Yeoman; “Ida,” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski; “Mr. Turner,” Dick Pope; “Unbroken,” Roger Deakins
Fox Searchlight Pictures
Best Costume Design: “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Milena Canonero; “Inherent Vice” (pictured), Mark Bridges; “Into the Woods,” Colleen Atwood; "Maleficent,” Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive; “Mr. Turner,” Jacqueline Durran
Warner Bros.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “Foxcatcher” (pictured), Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard; “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier; “Guardians of the Galaxy” Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White
Sony Pictures Classics
Best Original Song: “Everything Is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie," music and lyric by Shawn Patterson; “Glory” from “Selma” (pictured), music and lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn; “Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights,” music and lyric by Diane Warren; “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me,” music and lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond; “Lost Stars” from “Begin Again,” music and lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois
Paramount Pictures
Best Original Score: “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Alexandre Desplat; “The Imitation Game,” Alexandre Desplat; “Interstellar,” Hans Zimmer (pictured); “Mr. Turner,” Gary Yershon; “The Theory of Everything,” Jóhann Jóhannsson
Getty Images
Best Production Design: “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “The Imitation Game," “Interstellar," “Into the Woods," “Mr. Turner” (pictured)
Sony Pictures Classics
Best Sound Editing: "American Sniper," "Birdman," "The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies," "Interstellar" (pictured), "Unbroken"
Paramount Pictures
Best Sound Mixing: “American Sniper,” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin; “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga; “Interstellar,” Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten; “Unbroken” (pictured), Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee; “Whiplash,” Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley
Universal Pictures
Best Visual Effects: “Captain America: The Winter Soldier,” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick; “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist; “Guardians of the Galaxy” (pictured), Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould; “Interstellar” Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher; “X-Men: Days of Future Past,” Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer
Disney/Marvel
Best Live Action Short Film: “Aya,” Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis; “Boogaloo and Graham” (pictured), Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney; “Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak),” Hu Wei and Julien Féret; “Parvaneh,” Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger; “The Phone Call,” Mat Kirkby and James Lucas
Best Animated Short Film: “The Bigger Picture” (pictured) Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees; “The Dam Keeper,” Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi; “Feast,” Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed; “Me and My Moulton,” Torill Kove; “A Single Life” Joris Oprins
Best Documentary Short: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1,” Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry; “Joanna,” Aneta Kopacz; “Our Curse” Tomasz Sliwinski and Maciej Slesicki; “The Reaper (La Parka),” Gabriel Serra Arguello: “White Earth” (pictured), J. Christian Jensen
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See the nominees that have a shot at Oscar gold when the 87th annual Academy Awards airs Feb. 22 on ABC
Best Motion Picture of the Year: “American Sniper," “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” “Boyhood" (pictured), "The Grand Budapest Hotel," “The Imitation Game" (pictured), “Selma" (pictured), “The Theory of Everything," “Whiplash”