Three years ago, Christopher Nolan released a three-hour movie about the creation of nuclear weapons that proved he has a unique, loyal and immense global fanbase far beyond what any other filmmaker in the world today enjoys. Now, Universal is staking hundreds of millions on the belief that they will show up again with Nolan’s biggest film yet: “The Odyssey.”
After “Oppenheimer” grossed $965 million worldwide in 2023 against a $100 million production budget and became the highest grossing Best Picture Oscar winner in 20 years, Nolan got a blank check from Universal to make his adaptation of Homer’s legendary Greek epic. “The Odyssey” carries a true tentpole budget: $250 million, plus at least another $100 million in marketing.
It’s a big bet from Universal, as their biggest tentpole this year isn’t a DreamWorks sequel, a “Fast & Furious” or “Jurassic World” movie or even this past spring’s “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie.” It is a literary adaptation sold to audiences with Nolan’s name and a loaded cast that includes Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson and Zendaya.
In other words, this is old school Hollywood brought back to life. Now the question is whether it will all pay off and possibly become Nolan’s first billion-dollar hit outside of the Batman franchise. For now, trackers are projecting an opening weekend for “The Odyssey” of $85-95 million, which would top the $82.7 million opening of “Oppenheimer.”
If it can overperform and clear $100 million, “The Odyssey” would join “It” and Marvel’s “Deadpool” trilogy as just the fifth R-rated film with a $100 million-plus domestic launch.
Of course, his hardcore fans can’t see the film fast enough. As a marketing stunt, Universal and Imax released opening day tickets for “The Odyssey” at nine theaters screening the film in Imax 70mm one year in advance, and all of the screenings sold out within minutes. The film’s status as the first movie shot entirely with Imax cameras, combined with Nolan’s popularity, has caused ticketing websites to crash and lobbies of theaters with Imax 70mm projectors to fill up with fans trying to snag advance tickets.
For an example of this craze, look no further than the BFI Imax theater in London, where every single Imax 70mm screening of “The Odyssey” for the first two weeks of its theatrical run has been sold out, including screenings at 4 a.m. added to meet the overwhelming demand.
With this level of interest, “The Odyssey” has a strong baseline not just for this weekend, but for the next two weeks. But it will need more than that to match or exceed “Oppenheimer.” Remember, while the majority of the film’s audience undoubtedly went to see “Oppenheimer” on its own merits, the film also got a boost from its shared release date with “Barbie” and the ensuing “Barbenheimer” craze.
With the power of internet memes fueling its already huge momentum, “Oppenheimer” likely drew in a portion of the predominantly female core audience for “Barbie” that might not have been otherwise aware or interested in the film and came out of the theater spreading its word-of-mouth even farther among general audiences.
“The Odyssey” won’t have “Barbie,” or any other film for that matter, opening opposite it to build any memes. But what it does have is the highest Rotten Tomatoes score in Nolan’s career. At time of writing, “The Odyssey” stands at a stunning 98% with 147 reviews logged, topping the 94% of past Nolan films “Memento” and “The Dark Knight.”
With critical acclaim and its Oscar contender status already locked in, the chances of a $100 million-plus opening get stronger. And with no films coming out next weekend, moviegoers who don’t show up right away — whether it is because they want to see the film on Imax or other premium formats or because they’ll be watching the conclusion of the FIFA World Cup this weekend — will fuel what is likely to be an excellent second weekend hold.
But then comes the third weekend, and with it “Spider-Man: Brand New Day.” The global moviegoing populace may have chilled on the Marvel Cinematic Universe as a whole, but Spider-Man, and especially Tom Holland’s Spider-Man, remains incredibly popular. Early tracking has “Brand New Day” earning a domestic opening of at least $180 million, and it could end up outgrossing “Avengers: Doomsday” to become the top-grossing film of 2026 by the end of this holiday season.
And that competition will definitely take a bite out of the legs of “The Odyssey” in a way that “Oppenheimer,” which enjoyed a lack of new competition through August, didn’t have to worry about. It will be starting in the third weekend where we see just how far Nolan has grown his clout with moviegoers more than a decade after the end of the “Dark Knight” trilogy.
Will “The Odyssey” become a four-quadrant hit despite its R-rating and gain a reputation among the masses as a crowd-pleasing, awe-inspiring blockbuster that must be seen on the big screen? Will Nolan continue to build as a filmmaker whose movies must be seen no matter what other titles he is sharing the marquee with?
For Universal to turn a theatrical profit, the answer to these questions must be an unequivocal “Yes.”