After 700 pages of eligible contenders, 120 categories of nominees and more than five hours of awards shows last weekend, it’s down to this: 19 remaining categories and 113 nominees hoping to go home victorious at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards.
The nominations were wild and, at times, contradictory, with a pair of previous winners, the medical drama “The Pitt” and the showbiz comedy “Hacks,” leading the way with 25 and 24 nominations, respectively. Both seemed to be facing serious threats from bold new shows, with the dystopian future of “Pluribus” and the creepy comedy of “Widow’s Bay” coming on strong. And in the limited series category, things were all over the map, with contenders including a controversial real-life chronicle, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette,” the second season of the black comedy “Beef” and a twisty mystery set in the world of a kinky hookup app for would-be cheaters, “DTF St. Louis.”
We expect all of those to take home awards on Monday at the Peacock Theater. But based on what we saw at the two Creative Arts Emmys ceremonies on Sept. 5 and 6, the momentum seems to be with “The Pitt,” “Widow’s Bay” and “DTF St. Louis.”
In recent years, the trend has been to give more Emmys to fewer programs, but we need to expect that there will be surprises. Last year, the shocks came with Jeff Hiller winning the comedy-supporting-actor award for “Somebody Somewhere” over Harrison Ford, Ike Barinholtz, Colman Domingo, Ebon Moss-Bachrach and others, and “Andor” winning the drama-writing Emmy over “The Pitt,” “Severance,” “The White Lotus” and “Slow Horses.” This year… well, if I knew, it wouldn’t be a surprise.
Here’s what we expect to happen on Emmy night.
Comedy Categories
Outstanding Comedy Series
Nominees:
“Abbott Elementary”
“The Bear”
“Hacks”
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
“Nobody Wants This”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“Shrinking”
“Widow’s Bay”
When the series finale of “Hacks” aired in late May, it seemed all but inevitable that the show’s standout last season and moving final episode would pave the way for an Outstanding Comedy Series win. But around that same time, people were discovering the debut season of the horror-comedy hybrid “Widow’s Bay,” which became TV’s hottest new show just as Emmy voting began.
And if you look at recent history, Television Academy voters just aren’t all that sentimental about honoring shows in their final seasons. Three-time winner “Veep” didn’t win in 2019 because voters had discovered “Fleabag”; the finales of “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” and the presumed finale of “Ted Lasso” lost in 2023 to the debut of “The Bear”; and overall, freshman shows have won in three of the last five years after only winning once in the previous decade.
“Hacks” went out on a high note and would be a deserving winner. But “Widow’s Bay” is another great show – and as the Creative Arts Emmys shows proved, it’s the new hot thing. And Emmy voters like new hot things over old favorites.
Predicted winner: “Widow’s Bay”
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Nominees:
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “Wonder Man”
Steve Carell, “Rooster”
Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay”
Jason Segel, “Shrinking”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Over the last decade at the Emmys, the show that has won Outstanding Comedy Series has also won at least two of the seven other televised comedy awards – and in every single case, its lead actor or actress has won. It’s been 12 years since a comedy-series winner failed to also take a lead acting award, and it only happened in 2014 because “Modern Family” entered all of its actors in the supporting categories.
Given the way he keeps the horror humorous, there is absolutely no reason to think that “Widow’s Bay” star Matthew Rhys won’t keep the streak going
Predicted winner: Matthew Rhys
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Nominees:
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback”
Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Jean Smart is a legend who has won for “Hacks” the last four years in a row, to go with her three additional Emmys in other categories. It’s not completely out of the question that Lisa Kudrow could pull off a huge upset for her comeback in “The Comeback,” but Smart’s performance in the “Hacks” finale helped take that show out on a stunning high note. She seems all but guaranteed to win her fifth consecutive comedy-actress Emmy, which would tie her with Candice Bergen and Mary Tyler Moore for the second most wins ever in the category, behind only Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ six.
Predicted winner: Jean Smart
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Nominees:
Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks”
Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”
Nick Offerman, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
Stephen Root, “Widow’s Bay”
Michael Urie, “Shrinking”
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
He’s been doing fine work for decades, he’s enormously respected, he’s gotten grizzled and he’s never won an Emmy … and by the way, he isn’t Harrison Ford. Sure, Ford falls into the overdue category and could well win for “Shrinking,” but Stephen Root is a scene-stealing wonder in “Widow’s Bay.” Last year, Ford was the favorite but was upset by Jeff Hiller for “Somebody Somewhere”; this year, it may be Root’s turn.
Predicted winner: Stephen Root
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Nominees:
Dale Dickey, “Widow’s Bay”
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
Kate O’Flynn, “Widow’s Bay”
Michelle Pfeiffer, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
Megan Stalter, “Hacks”
Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
This is another category where “Hacks” once seemed unstoppable, given Hannah Einbinder’s deeply moving (and very funny) performance in the series finale. And this is another category that was upended when “Widow’s Bay” came along, because Kate O’Flynn became one of the season’s breakout stars. You could argue that some of O’Flynn’s best work came in the final three episodes, which aired after the Emmys cutoff date and aren’t eligible to be considered, but she had a terrific showcase in the “Beach Reads” episode, which should be enough to get her the Emmy.
Predicted winner: Kate O’Flynn
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Nominees:
“Abbott Elementary” (Randall Einhorn for “Ballgame”)
“The Bear” (Christopher Storer for “Bears”)
“The Chair Company” (Andrew DeYoung for “Life goes by too f**king fast, it really does”)
“Hacks” (Lucia Aniello for “Hacks”)
“The Ms. Pat Show” (Mary Lou Belli for “Give It Arrest”)
“Widow’s Bay” (Hiro Murai for “Welcome to Widow’s Bay”)
Over the last decade, this category has matched the comedy-series winner a little more than half the time, which should be good news for Hiro Murai and the “Widow’s Bay” pilot. But it’s risky to underestimate the final episode of “Hacks,” which went to Paris and back and captured all of what people loved about that series. In a close race, we’re going with the world-building that went into the “Widow’s Bay” pilot.
Predicted winner: “Widow’s Bay”
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Nominees:
“Abbott Elementary” (Quinta Brunson for “Team Building”)
“The Chair Company” (Tim Robinson and Zach Kanin for “Life goes by too f**king fast, it really does”)
“The Comeback” (Michael Patrick King and Lisa Kudrow for “Valerie Does It All”)
“Hacks” (Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky for “Hacks”)
“Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” (Anthony King for “Mergers and Acquisitions”)
“Widow’s Bay” (Katie Dippold for “Welcome to Widow’s Bay”)
Like the directing category, comedy writing has a 60% correlation with the comedy-series winner. But “Hacks” has won twice, once when it also won the series award and once when it didn’t. It may be hard for voters in the writers’ peer group to resist the comedy about comedy writers.
Predicted winner: “Hacks”
Drama Categories
Outstanding Drama Series
Nominees:
“The Diplomat”
“The Gilded Age”
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”
“Paradise”
“The Pitt”
“Pluribus”
“Slow Horses”
“Your Friends & Neighbors”
Last year, “Severance” went into the Emmys ceremony with 27 nominations, the most of any show; “The Pitt” had less than half of that, 13, tying it for eighth place among all programs. And yet, “The Pitt” won the Outstanding Drama Series award, and this year it reinforced its status as voters’ favorite by leading all shows with 25 nominations. Last year, the medical show was something of an underdog; this year, it’s a clear favorite.
Vince Gilligan’s smart and twisted “Pluribus” is likely its main competitor, though it also feels a little like “Severance” did last year, maybe too quirky for mainstream voters. There’s a lot of affection for “The Diplomat” that might manifest itself more in the acting categories, but “The Pitt” seems destined to repeat last year’s win, though without nearly as much suspense.
Predicted winner: “The Pitt”
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Nominees:
Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
Mark Ruffalo, “Task”
Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat”
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
It’s been a very long time since an actor scored back-to-back wins in this category, with only three men doing it in this century: James Gandolfini for “The Sopranos” in 2000 and 2001, James Spader for “The Practice” in 2004 and “Boston Legal” in 2005 (playing the same role) and Bryan Cranston for “Breaking Bad” in 2008, 2009 and 2010. However rare the feat might be, it’s hard to see how Noah Wyle isn’t going to accomplish it for a season in which his Dr. Robby was in a very bad state.
Predicted winner: Noah Wyle
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Nominees:
Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age”
Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments”
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus”
Zendaya, “Euphoria”
Zendaya has been nominated two previous times for “Euphoria,” and she’s won both times. Keri Russell has a real chance to join husband Matthew Rhys in the winners’ circle for “The Diplomat.” But Rhea Seehorn is a tour de force in “Pluribus,” and she seems likely to follow last year’s winner, Britt Lower for “Severance,” as a comedy-actress winner from an edgy sci-fi series. Plus, it’ll help Emmy voters make up for bypassing her for “Better Call Saul,” the show with the most nominations without a win in Emmy history.
Predicted winner: Rhea Seehorn
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Nominees:
Patrick Ball, “The Pitt”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Shawn Hatosy, “The Pitt”
Gerran Howell, “The Pitt”
Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses”
Tom Pelphrey, “Task”
Carlos-Manuel Vesga, “Pluribus”
Now we face a big question: Will “The Pitt” split the vote in the supporting categories? The show has three of the seven nominees in this category, and if voters can’t decide between Patrick Ball, Shawn Hatosy and Gerran Howell, that might well open the door for Tom Pelphrey from “Task” or two-time winner Billy Crudup from “The Morning Show.”
But here’s an odd statistic: The last four winners in this category – Tramell Tillman from “Severance,” Crudup and Matthew Macfadyen from “Succession,” twice – all came from shows that had three or four nominees in the category. And at the Creative Arts Emmys last week, “The Pitt” had two nominees in the guest-actor category, but the show’s Ernest Harden Jr. won. So we’re going to assume that vote-splitting won’t be a problem, and give this to Patrick Ball over Pelphrey.
Predicted winner: Patrick Ball
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Nominees:
Taylor Dearden, “The Pitt”
Fiona Dourif, “The Pitt”
Allison Janney, “The Diplomat”
Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”
Sepideh Moafi, “The Pitt”
Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”
Karolina Wydra, “Pluribus”
Once again, vote-splitting is a potential problem for “The Pitt,” which has four of the seven nominees. It’s hard to decide which of the four would stand out to voters, with Katherine LaNasa being the defending champ in the category, Sepideh Moafi having a powerful storyline and Taylor Dearden and Fiona Dourif being slight dark horses. And that confusion could easily work to the advantage of Allison Janney, Julianne Nicholson or Karolina Wydra.
Really, this one feels like a tossup, but we think the Emmys will make another “Pitt” stop.
Predicted winner: Sepideh Moafi
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Nominees:
“The Gilded Age” (Salli Richardson-Whitfield for “My Mind Is Made Up”)
“Paradise” (Hanelle M. Culpepper for “Exodus”)
“The Pitt” (Noah Wyle for “12:00 PM”)
“Pluribus” (Vince Gilligan for “We Is Us”)
“Slow Horses” (Saul Metzstein for “Scars”)
“Task” (Salli Richardson-Whitfield for “Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and rightdoing, there is a river”)
As it does in the comedy field, this award goes to the overall series winner most but not all of the time. (Last year, “The Pitt” won for series but “Slow Horses” won for directing.) Unless viewers want to reward Salli Richardson-Whitfield, the first woman ever to receive two nominations in the category in a single year, it’ll probably come down to “The Pitt” vs. “Pluribus” again, with the former show perhaps having an edge for the distinctive, propulsive way in which it is filmed.
Predicted winner: “The Pitt”
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Nominees:
“The Diplomat” (Peter Ackerman and Debora Cahn for “Amagansett”)
“The Pitt” (Kirsten Pierre-Geyfman & R. Scott Gemmill for “1:00 PM”)
“The Pitt” (Valerie Chu for “12:00 PM”)
“Pluribus” (Vince Gilligan for “We Is Us”)
“Slow Horses” (Will Smith for “Scars”)
“Task” (Brad Ingelsby for “A Still Small Voice”)
The last couple of years have brought surprises in this category: “Andor” last year, “Slow Horses” the year before. That could be a good sign for “Task” or “The Diplomat,” but the novelty of Vince Gilligan’s creation of “Pluribus” might well be hard to ignore.
Predicted winner: “Pluribus”
Limited Series Categories
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Nominees:
“All Her Fault”
“The Beast in Me”
“Beef”
“DTF St. Louis”
“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette”
Until about halfway through the Creative Arts Emmys show on Sept. 6, “Beef” seemed to be the favorite to win in this category, just as the first season of that anthology series did in 2023. But then “DTF St. Louis” won for supporting performers David Harbour and Linda Cardellini, for writing and for directing. “Love Story” got an important casting win at the beginning of that ceremony – but when one limited series wins for acting, for writing and for directing, you’ve got to figure that it’s the voters’ top choice.
Predicted winner: “DTF St. Louis”
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, “Bait”
Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit”
Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story”
Oscar Isaac, “Beef”
Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me”
“Beef” is favored in both of the lead acting categories, but its nominees in the two supporting categories were beaten by “DTF St. Louis” last weekend. That doesn’t mean Oscar Isaac is going to lose here, but an upset is certainly possible. The other four nominees are conceivable, with Jason Bateman a backhanded way to give “DTF” (which he’s also in) a little more love, Matthew Rhys a way to thank him for “Widow’s Bay” and Riz Ahmed a surprise nominee who might have more support than we realize.
Predicted winner: Oscar Isaac
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Nominees:
Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me”
Sally Field, “Remarkably Bright Creatures”
Carey Mulligan, “Beef”
Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette”
Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault”
Again, Carey Mulligan is the favorite for “Beef.” But who doesn’t love Sally Field? And the casting Emmy that went to “Love Story” last week suggests that voters are impressed by the actors playing real people, foremost among them Sarah Pidgeon.
Predicted winner: Sarah Pidgeon
Reality and Variety Categories
Outstanding Reality Competition Program
Nominees:
“Dancing With the Stars”
“RuPaul’s Drag Race”
“Survivor”
“Top Chef”
“The Traitors”
This category is full of streaks. “The Voice” won for three straight years. “RuPaul’s Drag Race” won for five straight years. “The Amazing Race” won for seven straight years. And you have to think that “The Traitors” is about to add to its own streak, which currently sits at a paltry two years. The only thing that could stop it is admiration for the fact that “Survivor” just had its 50th season and has never won.
Predicted winner: “The Traitors”
Outstanding Variety Series
Nominees:
“The Daily Show”
“Jimmy Kimmel Live”
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
“Saturday Night Live”
This is one of the easiest categories to predict, and one of the hardest. It’s easy because “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” is going to win an Emmy for its final season, just as it did last year when voting happened after CBS canceled the show that so annoyed President Trump. But it’s hard because the variety-series Emmy has been reclassified as an “Area” award, which changes how people vote.
Instead of being asked to choose one of the five nominees, voters will be asked a question separately for each of the five nominees: Does this program deserve an Emmy? Any show that receives 90% yes answers gets an Emmy; any show that falls below that figure doesn’t. So there could be one winner, there could be five winners or there could be any number in between.
One thing to keep in mind: In recent years, other Area categories have almost invariably produced a single winner. So the smart choice might be to say Stephen Colbert will win and leave it at that. But history says that the Academy really loves John Oliver, too, so we’ll throw him in, too.
Predicted winners: “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver,” “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
