The Los Angeles Times on Wednesday ran a front-page story that pointed out how most Oscar voters don’t understand the Academy’s system of ballot counting in the Best Picture category – but in the process, the Times showed that they have some problems of their own understanding the system.
And the piece prompted a quick response from Rob Richie, the executive director of FairVote, a non-profit group devoted to election analysis and reform. In a Huffington Post piece titled “L.A. Times Clunker: Page 1 Story Fails in Explaining Oscar Voting for Best Picture,” Richie praised the graphics that accompany the story, but added, “Unfortunately, the news story itself is a big disappointment … [that] gets key details wrong.”
Take the first sentence of the story, written by Times staff writer Glenn Whipp: “The Oscar winner for best picture Sunday night probably won’t be the movie that the majority of voters put atop their ballots.”
Actually, “the movie that the majority of voters put atop their ballots,” if there was such a movie, would be an automatic winner: The whole idea of the preferential system is that if a movie has more than 50 percent of the vote, it’s the winner.
Before we wade into this much further, a primer: As the Times story points out, the “preferential” system used by PricewaterhouseCoopers to count Oscar Best Picture ballots (and Oscar nominating ballots in most categories) is a version of the “instant runoff” voting used in some municipal elections.
Voters are asked to rank all the best picture nominees in order of preference, and the ballots are put in stacks based on each voter’s No. 1 choice. If no movie has more than 50 percent of the vote, the film with the fewest votes is eliminated, and its ballots are redistributed to the film ranked second on those ballots.
The process continues, with the lowest-ranked film eliminated and its votes allocated to the highest-ranked film still in contention on each ballot, until one film winds up with more than 50 percent of the vote.
Voters rank all the contenders, but each ballot goes to one movie — sometimes the No. 1 choice, sometimes the No. 2, sometimes lower.
So yes, it’s possible that one film could have fewer No. 1 votes than another, and still win by picking up additional votes as ballots are redistributed. (In fact, if “Boyhood” wins on Sunday, that’ll likely be its route to victory.)
But to imply, as Whipp does, that the movie with the most first-place votes probably won’t win is wrong. As Richie pointed out, the history of instant runoff elections shows that having the most No. 1 votes in the first round of counting almost always leads to victory.
Citing the example of San Francisco elections that use the system, Richie wrote, “Of the 51 administered elections that used ranked choice voting, 30 were won on the first count. Of the 21 others, 19 were won by the candidates who led after the first count. Only two were ‘comeback victories.’”
That Times error might be attributable more to sloppy phrasing than misunderstanding — if Whipp had begun with the far less eye-catching “The Oscar winner for best picture Sunday night might not be be the movie with the most first-place votes,” he’d be on safer ground.
But later in the piece is a more damaging passage that endorses a useless strategy, one that TheWrap has debunked on numerous occasions.
“…[S]ome academy members, particularly those with a vested interest in the outcome, know enough to rank their own movie first and their closest competitor’s last,” it reads.
But that’s not a tactic that anyone who “knows enough” would ever use, because it doesn’t work. If you rank your movie first, nothing else you do on your ballot can hurt that movie. It makes absolutely no difference whether your competitor is ranked second or eighth — your vote won’t go to that movie unless your first choice is eliminated. And if it is, that elimination was absolutely no fault of yours, and had nothing to do with where anything else was ranked on your ballot.
Putting your biggest competitor last might help make that competitor lose to some different movie, but it won’t do anything to help your movie — and to paint a person who uses that strategy as being knowledgeable, as the Times does, is misleading and dead wrong.
Richie cited that piece in his Huffington Post piece, adding, “Unfortunately, Whipp just elevated the ‘schmuck’ analysis to page one of the Los Angeles Times.”
Richie wrote to Whipp to make him aware of the inaccuracies before posting his HuffPo piece, and the first comment about the story made on the Times website points out the inaccuracy as well. The Times has yet to address the criticism or run a correction, and did not respond to TheWrap’s requests for comment.
Oscars 2015: The Nominees (Photos)
Best Motion Picture of the Year: “American Sniper," “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” “Boyhood" (pictured), "The Grand Budapest Hotel," “The Imitation Game" (pictured), “Selma" (pictured), “The Theory of Everything," “Whiplash”
Paramount/IFC/The Weinstein Company
Best Director: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” Alejandro G. Iñárritu; “Boyhood,” Richard Linklater (pictured); “Foxcatcher” Bennett Miller; “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Wes Anderson; “The Imitation Game,” Morten Tyldum
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Best Animated Feature Film: “Big Hero 6,” Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli; “The Boxtrolls” (pictured), Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight; “How to Train Your Dragon 2,” Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold; “Song of the Sea” Tomm Moore and Paul Young “The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura
Focus Features
Best Original Screenplay: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo; “Boyhood" by Richard Linklater; “Foxcatcher” by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman; “The Grand Budapest Hotel” by Wes Anderson, story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness; “Nightcrawler” (pictured) by Dan Gilroy
Open Road Films
Best Adapted Screenplay: “American Sniper” by Jason Hall, “The Imitation Game” (pictured) by Graham Moore; “Inherent Vice” by Paul Thomas Anderson; “The Theory of Everything” by Anthony McCarten; “Whiplash” by Damien Chazelle
The Weinstein Company
Best Foreign Language Film: “Ida,” (pictured) Poland; “Leviathan,” Russia; “Tangerines,” Estonia; “Timbuktu,” Mauritania; “Wild Tales,” Argentina
Music Box Films
Best Documentary Feature: "Citizenfour," "Finding Vivian Maier," "Last Days in Vietnam," "Salt of the Earth," "Virunga" (pictured)
Netflix
Best Film Editing: "American Sniper" (pictured), "Boyhood," "Grand Budapest Hotel," Imitation Game," Whiplash"
Warner Bros.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role: Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher," Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper," Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Imitation Game," Michael Keaton (pictured) in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)," Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”
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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role: Robert Duvall in “The Judge,” Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood," Edward Norton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)," Mark Ruffalo in “Foxcatcher," J.K. Simmons (pictured) in “Whiplash”
Getty Images
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role: Marion Cotillard in “Two Days, One Night,” Felicity Jones (pictured) in “The Theory of Everything," Julianne Moore in “Still Alice," Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl," Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”
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Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood," Laura Dern in “Wild," Keira Knightley (pictured) in “The Imitation Game," Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)," Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”
Getty Images
Achievement in Cinematography: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” Emmanuel Lubezki; “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (pictured), Robert Yeoman; “Ida,” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski; “Mr. Turner,” Dick Pope; “Unbroken,” Roger Deakins
Fox Searchlight Pictures
Best Costume Design: “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Milena Canonero; “Inherent Vice” (pictured), Mark Bridges; “Into the Woods,” Colleen Atwood; "Maleficent,” Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive; “Mr. Turner,” Jacqueline Durran
Warner Bros.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “Foxcatcher” (pictured), Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard; “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier; “Guardians of the Galaxy” Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White
Sony Pictures Classics
Best Original Song: “Everything Is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie," music and lyric by Shawn Patterson; “Glory” from “Selma” (pictured), music and lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn; “Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights,” music and lyric by Diane Warren; “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me,” music and lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond; “Lost Stars” from “Begin Again,” music and lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois
Paramount Pictures
Best Original Score: “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Alexandre Desplat; “The Imitation Game,” Alexandre Desplat; “Interstellar,” Hans Zimmer (pictured); “Mr. Turner,” Gary Yershon; “The Theory of Everything,” Jóhann Jóhannsson
Getty Images
Best Production Design: “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “The Imitation Game," “Interstellar," “Into the Woods," “Mr. Turner” (pictured)
Sony Pictures Classics
Best Sound Editing: "American Sniper," "Birdman," "The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies," "Interstellar" (pictured), "Unbroken"
Paramount Pictures
Best Sound Mixing: “American Sniper,” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin; “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga; “Interstellar,” Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten; “Unbroken” (pictured), Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee; “Whiplash,” Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley
Universal Pictures
Best Visual Effects: “Captain America: The Winter Soldier,” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick; “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist; “Guardians of the Galaxy” (pictured), Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould; “Interstellar” Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher; “X-Men: Days of Future Past,” Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer
Disney/Marvel
Best Live Action Short Film: “Aya,” Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis; “Boogaloo and Graham” (pictured), Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney; “Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak),” Hu Wei and Julien Féret; “Parvaneh,” Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger; “The Phone Call,” Mat Kirkby and James Lucas
Best Animated Short Film: “The Bigger Picture” (pictured) Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees; “The Dam Keeper,” Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi; “Feast,” Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed; “Me and My Moulton,” Torill Kove; “A Single Life” Joris Oprins
Best Documentary Short: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1,” Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry; “Joanna,” Aneta Kopacz; “Our Curse” Tomasz Sliwinski and Maciej Slesicki; “The Reaper (La Parka),” Gabriel Serra Arguello: “White Earth” (pictured), J. Christian Jensen
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See the nominees that have a shot at Oscar gold when the 87th annual Academy Awards airs Feb. 22 on ABC
Best Motion Picture of the Year: “American Sniper," “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” “Boyhood" (pictured), "The Grand Budapest Hotel," “The Imitation Game" (pictured), “Selma" (pictured), “The Theory of Everything," “Whiplash”