If the awards race hadn’t fully started before, it’s in full swing now.
The first full week of 2026 saw a deluge of developments on the road to the Academy Awards in March. Guilds like SAG and DGA named their nominees, while Critics Choice presented their annual winners. Meanwhile, Producers Guild nominations will be released Friday morning, while Hollywood prepares to attend Sunday’s Golden Globes one day before Oscar voters begin to cast their ballots for nominations that will be announced on Jan. 22.
Data tells a story, and this week brought no shortage of intelligence to parse for this year’s awards race. TheWrap’s Awards Tracker sorts through decades of awards season history to see what it can tell us about this year, and after a week of key nominations and wins, it tells us quite a bit.
“After the Hunt,” “Avatar,” “A House of Dynamite,” “No Other Choice,” “Nuremberg,” “Springsteen” — all movies that had Oscar hopes once upon a time — have less than a 5% chance at a Best Picture nomination, based on the tracker. Award-winning performers like Jeremy Allen White and Rami Malek have next to no chance of getting nominations this year. Cynthia Erivo seemed like a lock in November on predictor sites including Gold Derby and now has about a 1% shot.
Oscar winners Julia Roberts (“After the Hunt”) and Jennifer Lawrence (“Die My Love”) all scored in single digits for Best Actress, and are essentially out of the race, with little historical reason to believe they can be nominated.
But awards newcomers Amy Madigan from “Weapons” (OK, nominated 40 years ago for “Twice in a Lifetime”) and Wunmi Mosaku from “Sinners” are, shockingly, in the top five slots of the Best Supporting Actress tracker for their roles in horror movies, leaving in the dust such A-list names as Oscar winner Gwyneth Paltrow and Oscar nominee Emily Blunt.
Between “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners” and “Weapons,” Warner Bros. stole the top spot in five out of eight categories.

The data
Best Actress
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Jessie Buckley
Hamnet
Probability: 100% Up: 16.67%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: Critics Choice
“Hamnet” would mark Jessie Buckley’s second Oscar nomination this decade following her Best Supporting Actress nomination for “The Lost Daughter.”
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Chase Infiniti
One Battle After Another
Probability: 90.48% Up: 14.72%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Chase Infiniti would join a rare class of actors nominated for their first feature film performance.
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Rose Byrne
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Probability: 90.48% Up: 14.72%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Rose Byrne has gotten off to an early start with wins at Berlin International Film Festival and New York Film Critics Circle, as well as nominations at ceremonies like the Gothams and the Independent Spirit Awards.
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Emma Stone
Bugonia
Probability: 90.48% Up: 14.72%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Emma Stone and Sean Penn both have the opportunity to become the first actors to win three performance Oscars this century.
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Kate Hudson
Song Sung Blue
Probability: 80% Up: 74.85%Nominations: SAG, GG
Kate Hudson has not been nominated for an Oscar in the 25 years since her turn in “Almost Famous.”
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Renate Reinsve
Sentimental Value
Probability: 60% Down: -23.33%Nominations: GG, Critics Choice
Renate Reinsve received much acclaim for her performance in her last collaboration with Joachim Trier, “The Worst Person in the World,” though she missed out on the Oscar nomination.
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Amanda Seyfried
The Testament of Ann Lee
Probability: 33.33% Down: -42.43%Nominations: GG, Critics Choice
This would be Amanda Seyfried’s first Oscar nomination for a musical, and her second nomination overall.
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Eva Victor
Sorry, Baby
Probability: 6.25% Down: -22.32%Nominations: GG
Eva Victor directed and wrote “Sorry, Baby” as their debut feature.
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Tessa Thompson
Hedda
Probability: 6.25% Down: -22.32%Nominations: GG
Tessa Thompson would follow Glenda Jackson as the second woman to score a Best Actress nomination for playing Hedda Gabler.
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Jennifer Lawrence
Die My Love
Probability: 6.25% Down: -22.32%Nominations: GG
This would mark Jennifer Lawrence’s first nomination since being recognized four times between 2010 and 2015.
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Julia Roberts
After the Hunt
Probability: 6.25% Down: -22.32%Nominations: GG
Julia Roberts could become a five-time acting nominee more than a decade after her last nomination.
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Sydney Sweeney
Christy
Probability: 3.85% Up: 0.2%The Best Actress category has not gone without a biographical performance since 2010.
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Cynthia Erivo
Wicked: For Good
Probability: 1.09% Down: -4.06%Nominations: GG
Cynthia Erivo could join a short list of actors to be nominated twice for playing the same character.
This season, TheWrap introduced a comprehensive tool that gives you the key awards season statistics all in one place. The Awards Tracker looks at precursor ceremonies from the past 26 years to determine what nominations mean the most (and what misses do the most damage) on the road to the Academy Awards.
After this week, the Tracker has six new elements to track: nominations for Critics Choice, Actor Awards, Golden Globes and DGAs, and winners from last weekend’s Critics Choice Awards ceremony. PGA nominations come on Friday, while new data will roll in as Golden Globes winners are announced.
What does the data tell us about this year’s awards race?

The developments
When new nominees and winners roll in, three types of contenders emerge: sustainers, risers and fallers.
Jacob Elordi, who plays the forlorn Creature in “Frankenstein,” is the biggest riser in the Best Supporting Actor race. The category is stuffed with two “One Battle After Another” performers — Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro — and along with strong work by Stellan Skarsgård and Paul Mescal, many wondered if Elordi could make the cut.
This week, however, a SAG nomination and Critics Choice win gave Elordi a massive boost. No Critics Choice Best Supporting Actor winner has ever missed out on an Oscar nomination. The last time the two ceremonies didn’t share a winner was 2016, when Sylvester Stallone won Critics Choice for “Creed” but lost the Oscar to Mark Rylance for “Bridge of Spies.” Historically, this gives Elordi 100% nomination odds — so expect him in the lineup, barring a massive upset.
Best Picture
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One Battle After Another
Probability: 100% No change: 0%Nominations: SAG, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: Critics Choice
“One Battle After Another” would be the third consecutive Best Picture nominee for director Paul Thomas Anderson following “Licorice Pizza” and “Phantom Thread.”
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Sentimental Value
Probability: 97.56% Up: 16.86%Nominations: PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Joachim Trier’s “The Worst Person in the World” picked up nominations for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay, but it was not recognized in Best Picture.
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Sinners
Probability: 97.3% Up: 4.44%Nominations: SAG, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Only eight horror films have been nominated for Best Picture. You can read William Bibbiani’s breakdown here.
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Hamnet
Probability: 97.3% Up: 4.44%Nominations: SAG, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
“Hamnet” could join “Hamlet,” “West Side Story” and “Shakespeare in Love” as the fourth Shakespeare-related story to win Best Picture.
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Frankenstein
Probability: 97.3% Up: 4.44%Nominations: SAG, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
No film starring a title character of the Universal Monster movies has ever been nominated for Best Picture.
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Marty Supreme
Probability: 81.82% Up: 5.82%Nominations: SAG, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
Timothée Chalamet has starred in seven Best Picture nominees across the past 10 Academy Awards ceremonies.
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Bugonia
Probability: 72.22% Up: 20.37%Nominations: PGA, GG, Critics Choice
“Bugonia” would be Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone’s third collaboration (following “The Favourite” and “Poor Things”) to get a Best Picture nomination.
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Train Dreams
Probability: 56.52% Up: 23.19%Nominations: PGA, Critics Choice
Joel Edgerton hasn’t starred in a Best Picture nominee since 2012’s “Zero Dark Thirty.”
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Weapons
Probability: 21.42% Up: 16.83%Nominations: PGA
Zach Cregger could follow in Jordan Peele’s footsteps as a sketch comedy star who directed one of the few horror movies to be nominated for Best Picture.
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F1
Probability: 21.42% Up: 16.83%Nominations: PGA
Read TheWrap’s coverage with the team behind “F1” here
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Wicked: For Good
Probability: 20.93% Down: -12.40%Nominations: Critics Choice
Prior to 2026, only 11 sequels have been nominated for Best Picture.
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Jay Kelly
Probability: 20.93% Down: -12.40%Nominations: Critics Choice
Noah Baumbach’s last Oscar nomination was not for a film he directed, but for co-writing Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie.”
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Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Probability: 3.06% Down: -1.53%Both of Rian Johnson’s prior “Knives Out” movies were nominated for screenplay awards. Neither got a Best Picture nod.
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Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Probability: 3.06% Down: -1.53%Biopics about musicians have been nominated for Best Picture at the last three Academy Awards ceremonies. At least one biographical film has been in every Best Picture lineup since 2008 — before the Academy expanded from five nominees.
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Sorry, Baby
Probability: 3.06% Down: -1.53%Eva Victor could join a short list of filmmakers whose debut features were nominated for Best Picture.
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Song Sung Blue
Probability: 3.06% Down: -1.53%Hugh Jackman has not starred in a Best Picture nominee since 2012’s “Les Misérables.”
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Nuremberg
Probability: 3.06% Down: -1.53%It’s been more than 60 years since Stanley Kramer’s “Judgment at Nuremberg” was nominated for 11 Oscars
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Is This Thing On?
Probability: 3.06% Down: -1.53%After “Maestro,” Bradley Cooper joined a rare class of filmmakers, including Orson Welles, James L. Brooks and Frank Darabont, whose first two features were nominated for Best Picture.
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A House of Dynamite
Probability: 3.06% Down: -1.53%“A House of Dynamite” would be Kathryn Bigelow’s first Best Picture nomination in more than a decade.
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Hedda
Probability: 3.06% Down: -1.53%No adaptation of a Henrik Ibsen play has been nominated for Best Picture.
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Avatar: Fire & Ash
Probability: 3.06% Down: -1.53%“Avatar” could join “The Godfather” and “The Lord of the Rings” series as the only franchises with three consecutive Best Picture nominations.
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Nouvelle Vague
Probability: 1.69% Up: 0.15%Nominations: GG
“Nouvelle Vague” is one of two films directed by Richard Linklater in contention for Best Picture this year.
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No Other Choice
Probability: 1.69% Up: 0.15%Nominations: GG
Like Jafar Panahi, Park Chan-wook has never had a film nominated for an Oscar across his acclaimed career.
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Blue Moon
Probability: 1.69% Up: 0.15%Nominations: GG
Richard Linklater and Ethan Hawke waited years to develop “Blue Moon” until Hawke had appropriately aged into the role.
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The Secret Agent
Probability: 1.67% Down: -20.55%Nominations: GG
Last year, “I’m Still Here” became the first Brazilian film and the first Portuguese-speaking film nominated for Best Picture. “The Secret Agent” would be the second.
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It Was Just An Accident
Probability: 1.67% Down: -20.55%Nominations: GG
Despite an acclaimed career, Jafar Panahi has never had a film nominated for an Oscar.
The sustainers are easy to spot. Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” won Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay at Critics Choice, broke the Actor Awards nomination record and landed on the DGA lineup. The data says that “One Battle After Another” is the top contender in Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay.
Another favorite, “Sinners,” had a similar week, tying “Frankenstein” for most wins at Critics Choice, grabbing the second-most Actor Award nominations and scoring a DGA nod. “Frankenstein” and “Hamnet” saw similar success, allowing the data to support this insight: Statistically, it’s nearly certain that you will see these films in many of the key above-the-line races.
Best Supporting Actor
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Jacob Elordi
Frankenstein
Probability: 100% No change: 0%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: Critics Choice
Jacob Elordi could become the first actor to be nominated for playing the iconic role of Frankenstein’s Creature — a part taken on by the likes of Christopher Lee and Robert De Niro.
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Sean Penn
One Battle After Another
Probability: 93.62% Up: 13.32%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Sean Penn and Emma Stone both have the opportunity to become the first actors to win three performance Oscars this century.
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Benicio del Toro
One Battle After Another
Probability: 93.62% Up: 13.32%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
2026 marks 25 years since Benicio del Toro won his acting Oscar for 2001’s “Traffic.”
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Paul Mescal
Hamnet
Probability: 93.62% Up: 13.32%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
This would be Paul Mescal’s second acting nomination — despite only appearing in his first movie in 2021.
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Stellan Skarsgård
Sentimental Value
Probability: 47.37% Down: -32.93%Nominations: GG, Critics Choice
This would mark Stellan Skarsgård’s first Oscar nomination in his 53-year career.
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Adam Sandler
Jay Kelly
Probability: 47.37% Down: -32.93%Nominations: GG, Critics Choice
Adam Sandler once again finds himself in the awards race in the same season as Josh and Benny Safdie — who nearly directed him to a Best Actor nomination in 2019’s “Uncut Gems.”
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Miles Caton
Sinners
Probability: 30.43% Up: 18.89%Nominations: SAG
Miles Caton would be the 10th youngest Best Supporting Actor nominee ever.
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Jonathan Bailey
Wicked: For Good
Probability: 6.15% Down: -5.39%Jonathan Bailey missed the Supporting Actor nomination for “Wicked” last year.
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Josh O'Connor
Wake Up Dead Man
Probability: 6.15% Down: -5.39%Josh O’Connor could become the first actor to get a nomination for appearing in a “Knives Out” movie.
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Jeremy Strong
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Probability: 6.15% Down: -5.39%Jeremy Strong has already been nominated for one Oscar and three Emmys this decade.
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Delroy Lindo
Sinners
Probability: 6.15% Down: -5.39%Delroy Lindo once again finds himself in the awards race following a notable omission from the Best Actor lineup in 2021 for “Da 5 Bloods.”
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Billy Crudup
Jay Kelly
Probability: 6.15% Down: -5.39%Billy Crudup is one of the contenders with the shortest screen time in this year’s race with a performance only spanning a few scenes.
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Andrew Scott
Blue Moon
Probability: 6.15% Down: -5.39%Andrew Scott was nominated at last year’s SAG, Golden Globes and Critics Choice ceremonies — on the TV side for “Ripley.”
Amy Madigan lands in a similar boat after her Critics Choice win. The only Critics Choice Best Supporting Actress winner this century who didn’t get a Best Supporting Actress Oscar nomination was Kate Winslet in “The Reader,” who was nominated in and won in the lead actress category at the Academy Awards. This makes Madigan, another horror performer who could have easily been written off, an all-but lock with a 95% chance of nomination.
Best Supporting Actress
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Amy Madigan
Weapons
Probability: 95.24% Down: -0.41%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: Critics Choice
It has been 40 years since Amy Madigan got her last Oscar nomination.
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Ariana Grande
Wicked: For Good
Probability: 88.68% Up: 5.82%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Ariana Grande could join a short list of actors to be nominated twice for playing the same character.
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Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
Probability: 88.68% Up: 5.82%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Teyana Taylor could join a short list of musicians who win acting awards at the Oscars — a feat that could also be accomplished by Ariana Grande.
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Wunmi Mosaku
Sinners
Probability: 69.23% Up: 39.96%Nominations: SAG, Critics Choice
Wunmi Mosaku already won Outstanding Supporting Performance at the Gotham Film Awards.
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Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
Probability: 64.71% Down: -18.15%Nominations: GG, Critics Choice
Like her “Sentimental Value” castmates, this would be the first Oscar nomination for Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas.
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Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
Probability: 64.71% Down: -18.15%Nominations: GG, Critics Choice
Despite being nominated for numerous acting awards since she was a child, Elle Fanning has never gotten an Oscar nomination.
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Emily Blunt
The Smashing Machine
Probability: 29.17% Down: -15.83%Nominations: GG
Emily Blunt could secure her second nomination this decade following her turn in “Oppenheimer.”
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Odessa A'Zion
Marty Supreme
Probability: 26.09% Up: 13.78%Nominations: SAG
Odessa A’Zion also stars in “I Love LA,” which will release its final episode just days before “Marty Supreme” hits theaters.
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Hailee Steinfeld
Sinners
Probability: 7.69% Down: -4.62%Hailee Steinfeld was last nominated for an Oscar for “True Grit” when she was only 14 years old.
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Jayme Lawson
Sinners
Probability: 7.69% Down: -4.62%Jayme Lawson is part of the robust supporting cast that makes “Sinners” a strong contender for the inaugural Best Casting category at the Oscars.
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Regina Hall
One Battle After Another
Probability: 7.69% Down: -4.62%“One Battle After Another” could become the first film to receive six acting nominations in a single year.
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Gwyneth Paltrow
Marty Supreme
Probability: 7.69% Down: -4.62%Gwyneth Paltrow hasn’t been nominated for an Oscar since she won in 1999 for “Shakespeare in Love” — a film with a few narrative connections to this year’s “Hamnet.”
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Jennifer Lopez
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Probability: 7.69% Down: -4.62%Jennifer Lopez received numerous nominations for her role in “Hustlers,” including SAG, Golden Glboes and Critics Choice. She was not nominated for an Oscar.
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Rebecca Ferguson
A House of Dynamite
Probability: 7.69% Down: -4.62%This would mark Rebecca Ferguson’s first Oscar nomination, though she has starred in two Best Picture nominees: “Dune” and “Dune: Part Two.”
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Nina Hoss
Hedda
Probability: 7.69% Down: -4.62%Nina Hoss recently received acclaim for her supporting role in “Tár,” though it didn’t materialize in an Oscar nomination.
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Ayo Edebiri
After the Hunt
Probability: 7.69% Down: -4.62%Ayo Edebiri’s Oscar nomination would come hot on the heels of her nods at the 2025 Emmys for acting in and directing “The Bear.”
And then there are the fallers, those whose poor showing this week put their Oscar odds in question. “Jay Kelly” and “The Testament of Ann Lee,” both already on the margins of the race, did not win at Critics Choice or land nominations at the Actor Awards or the DGA. “Wicked: For Good” only got a single nomination at the Actor Awards (for Ariana Grande, who stands at 88% Oscar nomination odds, in Best Supporting Actress) and no wins at Critics Choice.
These films aren’t out of the race. Several of them still have odds in the Awards Tracker that put them in the middle of the pack. Still, there are a few unquantifiables that probably won’t work in their favor.
The X factors

Decades of data establish trends and norms that, each year, give us a pretty good idea of how the Oscars race will shake out. But these trends can only take us so far. Just as every year audiences watch expected nominees and winners take the stage, a number of X factors exist that keep the race in limbo to the end.
Though the SAG and DGA lineups indicate who’s coming our way on nomination morning, neither ceremony recognizes international films at the same rate as the current Academy Awards. This is good news for movies like “It Was Just an Accident,” “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value,” which were shut out in both SAG and DGA nominations.
Best Actor
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Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
Probability: 100% Up: 25%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Wins: Critics Choice
Following Colman Domingo, Timothée Chalamet could become the second person this decade nominated for Best Actor two years in a row.
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Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
Probability: 88.46% Up: 6.04%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
While “Sinners” could bring Ryan Coogler his first nominations for directing and screenwriting, it could give Michael B. Jordan his first Oscar nomination overall.
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Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
Probability: 82.35% Up: 7.35%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Leonardo DiCaprio could surpass Denzel Washington and Bradley Cooper as the most-nominated male actor this century, with 6 nods since 2000.
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Ethan Hawke
Blue Moon
Probability: 82.35% Up: 7.35%Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
Ethan Hawke could join the five-timers club of Oscar nominees. Two of his prior nominations were for acting, while two were for screenwriting. Three of these four nominations were for Richard Linklater collaborations.
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Joel Edgerton
Train Dreams
Probability: 37.5% Down: -44.92%Nominations: GG, Critics Choice
Joel Edgerton has never gotten a Best Actor nomination.
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Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
Probability: 37.5% Down: -44.92%Nominations: GG, Critics Choice
Wagner Moura already picked up the Best Actor prize at Cannes Film Festival. Now, he could become first Brazillian actor nominated in this category — and the third nominated for acting overall.
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Jeremy Allen White
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Probability: 20.69% Down: -18.33%Nominations: GG
The past four Academy Awards ceremonies have featured Best Actor nominees who portrayed real musicians.
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Dwayne Johnson
The Smashing Machine
Probability: 20.69% Down: -18.33%Nominations: GG
The last year the Best Actor race didn’t involve an actor portraying a real person was 2007.
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Oscar Isaac
Frankenstein
Probability: 20.69% Down: -18.33%Nominations: GG
“Frankenstein” would mark Oscar Isaac’s first Academy Awards nomination.
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George Clooney
Jay Kelly
Probability: 20% Up: 18.06%Nominations: GG
After George Clooney got four acting nominations (one win) across seven seasons, “Jay Kelly” would mark his first acting nod since 2012.
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Daniel Craig
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Probability: 4.62% Down: -1.53%Daniel Craig has been nominated for playing Benoit Blanc twice at the Golden Globes.
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Hugh Jackman
Song Sung Blue
Probability: 4.62% Down: -1.53%This would mark Hugh Jackman’s second Best Actor nomination — both for musical performances.
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Rami Malek
Nuremberg
Probability: 4.62% Down: -1.53%To date, Rami Malek’s only nomination is for his Oscar-winning role in “Bohemian Rhapsody.”
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Daniel Day-Lewis
Anemone
Probability: 4.61% Down: -1.54%Daniel Day-Lewis got his last Best Actor nod for his “retirement film,” “Phantom Thread.”
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Lee Byung-hun
No Other Choice
Probability: 2% Up: 0.06%Nominations: GG
Lee Byung-hun would be the second South Korean actor nominated in this category — and the third South Korean performer nominated for acting overall.
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Jesse Plemons
Bugonia
Probability: 1% Down: -0.94%Nominations: SAG, GG
Only three lead actors have gotten SAG and Golden Globes (Musical/Comedy) nominations without Critics Choice nods to match: Jim Carrey (“Man on the Moon”), Richard Gere (“Chicago”) and Taron Egerton (“Rocketman”). Though all three won the Golden Globe, none of them got an Oscar nomination.
But statistically, this gives them far worse odds than their more nominated competitors. Lately, however, as the Academy has recruited more global members, it has given itself a far different makeup than the American guilds.
For example, based on his nominations so far, Wagner Moura’s odds are pretty low to get an Oscar nod. But last year Fernanda Torres broke into the Best Actress Oscars race without a SAG nod.
This week showed us what happens when movie critics vote, and when people who make the movies vote. But the Academy is its own beast, and those other groups can only tell us so much.
So check out the robust dataset available on TheWrap’s Awards Tracker and see what stories are being told through the numbers. Just remember — the awards race isn’t over until it’s over.

