NEXT

The previous record for worst second weekend drop for a Marvel Cinematic Universe movie belonged to “Thor: Love and Thunder,” which slid 67.1% last summer from its $144 million opening last summer.

Also Read:
‘Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ Plummets 69% to $32 Million in Second Weekend at Box Office

The all-time record for worst second weekend drop after a $100 million-plus launch belongs to “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2,” which fell 72% from its $169.1 million opening in July 2011, though it still went on to $381.4 million domestic and $1.34 billion worldwide.

The success of “Deathly Hallows” shows how a steep weekend drop doesn’t always mean that word-of-mouth for a blockbuster is bad. Sometimes such a hard fall simply comes from the opening weekend total being inflated by pre-release hype with moviegoers who may have been second or third weekend viewers rushing out for opening weekend.

Bruce Nash, founder of box office website The Numbers, also notes that the box office in general has seen larger drops since theaters reopened.

“We’ve calculated that the average second weekend drop for a No. 1 film since the pandemic has been around 57%, compared to 51% before the pandemic,” Nash said. “This has been regardless of a film’s word-of-mouth, so it seems that weaker holdovers are the norm for most films save for some exceptions like ‘Top Gun: Maverick.'”

And as execs at Disney and DC movie distributor Warner Bros. would point out, superhero movies in particular are driven by hardcore, spoiler-averse fans turning out on opening weekend to discover a movie’s big reveals as quickly as possible. In the case of “Quantumania,” the film’s release on the four-day Presidents’ Day weekend may have also inflated the weekend drop slightly.

Also Read:
Cinemark Reports $99 Million Loss Despite ‘Avatar 2’ Box Office Success

All of that said, it’s clear that the mixed word-of-mouth hinted at by the B CinemaScore and 3.5/5 general audience PostTrak score for “Quantumania” is having a substantial impact on interest from casual audiences, who may not be the cornerstone of the MCU’s success but are a key factor as to whether a film posts a solid — if not record-breaking — $750-$950 million global box office total like Marvel’s 2022 films or the multiple $1 billion-plus results that the franchise enjoyed in 2018 and 2019.

Even pre-pandemic Marvel films that didn’t hit $1 billion enjoyed strong legs thanks to their rave reception among audiences. In 2017, “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” opened to $144.5 million and then dropped 55% in its second weekend — an unexceptional but decent hold for a May blockbuster — finishing with $389 million domestic and $863 million global. Six months later, “Thor: Ragnarok” dropped 53.5% from its $122 million opening and finished with $315 million domestic and $853.9 million worldwide.

So for “Quantumania” to fall so steeply this weekend, even given the higher average drop most films are facing, is likely a sign that casual audiences that weren’t immediately interested in seeing Jonathan Majors as new Marvel supervillain Kang aren’t coming out like for past Marvel films.

The result is a box office pattern somewhat similar to DC’s “Black Adam,” a film that opened to a decent $67 million before dropping 59% to $27.4 million in its second weekend as it received mixed reviews and lower-than-hoped interest from general audiences. “Black Adam” failed to turn a theatrical profit against its $200 million budget, grossing just $392 million worldwide. Its break-even point was pinpointed by analysts to be around $450-$475 million.

To be clear, that doesn’t mean that “Quantumania” is going to suffer the same fate as “Black Adam.” It is already going to pass that film’s domestic total on Monday and should pass its global total by next weekend.

Thanks to the last two “Ant-Man” films and Paul Rudd’s cameos in “Captain America: Civil War” and “Avengers: Endgame,” “Quantumania” is riding off a much stronger base of hardcore moviegoers than “Black Adam,” which drew more opening weekend interest from Dwayne Johnson than the history of its comic book antihero protagonist. Bruce Nash’s The Numbers currently projects a final domestic total for “Quantumania” of around $225 million.

Also Read:
Will ‘The Marvels’ and ‘Wish’ Split Moviegoers? Disney Believes There’s Room for Both

But making it past the break-even point and the $213.5 million domestic total of the last “Ant-Man and the Wasp” was the bare minimum goal for a film that was supposed to lead the box office’s most consistent and fruitful franchise into the next multiverse-fueled chapter of its saga. While Disney has been using past “Ant-Man” films as the measuring stick for “Quantumania,” any hopes of a significant leap from the last film in that series similar to how “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” outgrossed its 2016 predecessor by nearly $300 million are dashed.

And based on this past weekend, things could get worse for “Quantumania” heading into March. While its numbers were plummeting this past weekend, Universal’s “Cocaine Bear” got closer than expected to taking the No. 1 spot with a $23 million opening weekend. While reception for Elizabeth Banks’ darkly humorous thriller was more mixed-to-positive than glowing, it likely peeled off general audience moviegoers, particularly in the 18-35 demographic, that might have gone to “Quantumania” if it didn’t have that competition in theaters.

And keep in mind, that was from an R-rated film about a coke-addicted bear on a rampage. The competition for non-Marvel devotees is only going to get harder with films like MGM’s “Creed III” coming this Friday and Lionsgate’s “John Wick: Chapter 4” coming in the month ahead. If several of the March wide release titles on the horizon get better audience buzz than “Quantumania,” the legs for this Marvel movie may becoming shockingly short even by normal standards, let alone the sky-high expectations that the MCU has built with its decade-plus of box office success.

Also Read:
How the HBO Max-Discovery+ Combo Could Challenge Netflix and Hulu | Charts