A $37 million opening weekend is not what you want when trying to ignite a cinematic universe, but that’s where DC is right now after this weekend’s rough launch of “Supergirl.”
What happened?
The film “missed on a lot of levels,” a Warner Bros. insider told me. And how. The reviews were rough, but even the comic book diehards who showed up this weekend weren’t won over — the movie got a B- CinemaScore.
Most crucially, it completely whiffed on drawing in its target audience. This “Supergirl” movie, starring 26-year-old Milly Alcock, was made for Gen Z women, but that demo didn’t show up at all this weekend. Here are the demos: 59% of the audience was male, and 65% was over the age of 25. Not great!
We may look back on “Supergirl” as something of a flashpoint in the trajectory of superhero movies. The genre was already on a downturn over the last couple of years — even Florence Pugh and Pedro Pascal couldn’t get their Marvel movies to perform like the ones from the 2010s — but this could be the last non-A-tier superhero movie that gets greenlit at a budget this high.
Indeed, “Supergirl” cost $170 million, making its bar for profitability high (spoiler alert: it would take a miracle for “Supergirl” to clear it). As audiences are less interested in superhero movies on the whole — especially the increasingly theatergoing Gen Z — that kind of gamble is no longer viable. Save the big budgets for your Superman and Batman movies, and get creative with your other heroes.
The good news is, DC’s next movie is already in that mold: This fall’s “Clayface” is a $40 million body horror movie. But does “Supergirl” signal a complete disinterest in James Gunn and Peter Safran’s DC story as a whole, or was this merely a rejection of one movie? That’s the question.
Now, on to the rest of this week’s Reel to Real column as we tackle how a filmmaker gets an agent, the future of DC, A24’s AI kerfuffle and more.
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Box Office: ‘Supergirl’ Sinks to $38 Million Opening, ‘Toy Story 5’ Nears $300 Million Domestic
It’s good news for Disney and Pixar and bad news for Warner Bros. and DC at this weekend’s box office, as “Toy Story 5” reached $300 million at the domestic box office in just 10 days of box office play with a $73 million second weekend, while the new release “Supergirl” is on its way to an anemic $38 million domestic/$68 million global opening against a reported $170 million budget.
For comparison, “Supergirl” is slightly opening below the $39 million domestic/$84 million start of Sony/Marvel’s 2022 misfire “Morbius,” which rapidly lost audience interest and grossed just $167 million worldwide. Even if next weekend’s Fourth of July holiday helps minimize the second weekend drop, it’s extremely unlikely that the movie will even pass the $271 million global total of the 2023 DC bust “The Flash,” let alone reach the $300 million needed to break even theatrically.
That’s because reception among audiences hasn’t been the sort of effusive praise needed to compete against the wildly popular “Toy Story 5,” with a B- on CinemaScore, a 52% “definite recommend” score on PostTrak — women were 62% — and Rotten Tomatoes scores of 56% critics and 77% audience.
The demographic data for opening weekend shows that “Supergirl” just completely missed the mark. 59% of the audience was male and 65% was over the age of 25, which shows that the target audience for a “Supergirl” movie — young women — simply didn’t show up.
“Toy Story 5,” meanwhile, is speeding towards final theatrical totals north of $500 million domestic and $1 billion worldwide, as the film drew a global second weekend of $77.5 million for a $299.7 million cume.
With strong midweek grosses from families turning out for theater discount days, the Pixar sequel is drawing four-quadrant audiences on a daily basis and should become the highest-grossing “Toy Story” film before inflation adjustment.
Focus Features’ “Obsession” is third with $9.4 million in its seventh weekend, bringing its domestic total to $233 million as it draws closer and closer to the $279 million total that “Sinners” made last year.
In fourth is Paramount’s “Jackass: Best and Last” with an $8.4 million opening from 2,855 locations. “Best and Last” is making roughly a third of the $23.1 million that “Jackass Forever” made in February 2022, but should still turn a small theatrical profit against its $10 million budget. The movie has an 88% critics and 86% audience RT score and an A- on CinemaScore, with a primarily millennial male audience — 67% were men and 72% were over 25, with 39% between the ages of 25 and 34.
Universal/Amblin’s “Disclosure Day” completes the top 5 as it continues to drop off fast with a $8.1 million third weekend and a $94 million domestic total. The Steven Spielberg sci-fi film continues to play primarily to the director’s older-skewing fans and will need post-theatrical revenue for most of its profit as it is stretching out to $100 million domestic and $200 million worldwide against a reported $115 million budget.
Finally, A24 released Olivia Wilde’s adult dramedy “The Invite” on seven screens this weekend, grossing an estimated $384,000 for a per theater average of $54,800. Starring Wilde alongside Seth Rogen, Penelope Cruz and Edward Norton, the film was acquired for $10 million by A24 out of Sundance and has a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score. – Jeremy Fuster
The Spotlight
So “Supergirl” crashed, what happens next for DC? James Gunn and Peter Safran have a 10-year plan for their interconnected series of films and TV shows, but with the second film out crashing and burning, there’s cause for concern. Umberto Gonzalez and I spoke with insiders about what this means for DC. Read the full story here.
New Releases
How Does a Filmmaker Get an Agent?: In the next installment of our Trade Secrets series, we break down how to get an agent as a director or writer.
Splitting Up: NBCUniversal and Comcast are splitting into two separate companies.
The Federal Tax Credit: Hollywood has a plan to get a federal film tax credit passed. Here’s what it looks like.
Straight Outta Annecy: Drew Taylor saw the first footage from, and spoke to the filmmakers behind, Disney’s witch movie “Hexed” and Pixar’s uniquely animated “Gatto.”
A24 + AI: A24 defended its decision to partner with Google’s DeepMind on AI tools for filmmakers after strong backlash online.
The King of Biopics: “Michael” is now the highest-grossing biopic of all time with $977 million.
Up, Up and Away: What are the most important superhero movies ever made? The ones that changed culture and moviemaking – for better and worse? William Bibbiani breaks it down.
Luca Speaks: Luca Guadagnino made his first comments since Amazon offloaded his OpenAI movie “Artificial.”
Academy Invites: See the full list of who’s been invited to join the Motion Picture Academy.
Concession Stand
Warner Bros. says Jonah Hill’s comedy “Cut Off,” which was removed from the release schedule, is not “unreleasable.”
2027’s “Shrek 5” will be closely followed by a “Donkey” spinoff in 2028.
A live-action “Magic School Bus” is coming with Elizabeth Banks as Miss Frizzle.
A new “LEGO” movie reboot is taking shape at Universal with Keanu Reeves starring and Josh Cooley (“Transformers One”) directing.
Streaming Corner
- Also at Annecy, Drew Taylor got a look at Netflix’s animated Cinderella riff “Steps,” which its filmmakers touted as a reinvention with “modern sensibilities.” It’ll hit the streamer this fall. And don’t miss Taylor’s rundowns of Netflix animated films “Ray Gunn” and “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory,” also out of the increasingly influential animation festival.
- Speaking of Netflix, Hannah Minghella has been named Head of Animation Studios at the company. The move shifts live-action family film purview over to Kira Goldberg, while Minghella focuses on animation.
What I’m Watching
“The Sheep Detectives” is truly one of the best films of the year. It’s a delightful, moving and surprisingly philosophical cozy murder mystery about a flock of sheep who set about solving the murder of their shepherd, played by Hugh Jackman. This live-action/animation hybrid, written by Craig Mazin, got stellar reviews when it hit theaters earlier this year, and it’s easy to see why. It’s the kind of home run that’s a rarity in Hollywood. A big swing that knocks it out of the park, zero missteps. Now that it’s streaming on Prime Video, do yourself a favor and check it out. You won’t regret it.
