The dog days of summer are nearly over. Fittingly, Ridley Scott’s “The Dog Stars” closed out August with a dismal opening for the Jacob Elordi-fronted post-apocalyptic tale — a mere $8 million. Woof. To that end, let’s turn our attention to fall, shall we?
Festivals are just around the corner and, if history is any indication, some of the best films of the year will be released over the next four months. But will the scorching-hot summer box office convince more people to get to the movies over the next few months? And who has the best slate?
Let’s break it down studio-by-studio:
Warner Bros – After a rough year, things may look up for WB with the millennial-aimed sequel “Practical Magic 2” in September, which is looking to pull a “Devil Wears Prada 2.” Tom Cruise’s big swing “Digger” comes in October and the animated “The Cat in the Hat” with Bill Hader arrives in November. But of course, most eyes are on “Dune: Part Three.” The 2024 sci-fi sequel grossed over $715 million and won two Oscars. How high can “Dune 3” go?
Disney – Walt Disney Animation Studios has the witchy “Hexed” at Thanksgiving, which will give original animation another shot at a hit this year after Pixar’s “Hoppers” did fine with $390 million. 20th Century’s guy-gets-swallowed-by-a-whale survival thriller “Whalefall” has the makings of a surprise hit in October. Searchlight has a pair of Oscar contenders in Martin McDonagh’s CIA riff “Wild Horse Nine” in November and Tony Gilroy’s “Pedro Pascal is a film composer going through a crisis” drama “Behemoth!” in December. And then there’s “Avengers: Doomsday” on 12/18, where the Marvel sequel’s success or failure will be closely watched to weigh the future of the once-untouchable MCU.
Universal – Universal is still riding high on “The Odyssey” and its fall isn’t as stacked as the other studios. The biggest potential hit could be “Focker-in-Law,” another millennial-geared sequel (noticing a trend?) that brings back Ben Stiller and Robert De Niro and adds Ariana Grande for a fouth entry in the family comedy franchise. All three previous installments cleared $300 million at the box office, which would be spectacular for a comedy in 2026, but the last entry was also 16 years ago. The studio also has September’s pre-teen-geared animated original “Forgotten Island,” October horror hit hopeful “Other Mommy” with Jessica Chastain and the schlocky actioner “Violent Night 2” in December. Then from Focus there’s a Daisy Edgar-Jones-led “Sense and Sensibility” in September and Robert Eggers’ latest horror riff “Werwulf” on Christmas. Can lightning strike twice for the “Nosferatu” director?
Sony – “Weapons” writer/director Zach Cregger’s “Resident Evil” is already picking up heavy buzz thanks to an early marketing campaign targeting fans of the games, and I’ve heard great things about the filmmaker’s unique spin on the IP. Look for this to be another horror hit when it opens in September. Less certain is Aaron Sorkin’s “The Social Reckoning,” which follows up “The Social Network” but doesn’t have Jesse Eisenberg or David Fincher. The story is compelling enough, but October is pretty crowded with adult-oriented fare. If the movie’s good, it could pop.
Paramount – Perhaps the most schizophrenic release calendar, Paramount has a Brad Pitt survival thriller in September (“Heart of the Beast”), a goofy and largely star-less IP riff in October (“Street Fighter”), Johnny Depp’s big comeback in November (“Ebenezer”) and a pair of polar opposites for the Christmas frame: David Corenswet’s inspirational football drama “Mr. Irrelevant,” which is apparently testing off the charts, and “The Angry Birds Movie 3.” Roll those dice.
Netflix – Yes, Netflix! Coming to theaters! For real! The streamer dips its toe into the IMAX waters for the first time with “The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” for two weeks only starting Nov. 25 before the movie is streaming on Christmas. It’s David Fincher directing a Quentin Tarantino screenplay, with Brad Pitt reprising his Oscar-winning role from “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” This is the first of three confirmed genuine theatrical releases from Netflix coming up over the next 12 months, so let’s see how they (and audiences) respond.
And more – That’s not to mention Amazon MGM’s Colleen Hoover adaptation “Verity” in October, A24’s “Primetime” and Jesse Eisenberg’s feature “The Debut” or Black Bear’s internet-famous “Wicker,” just to name a few.
There’s a lot on the horizon and reason to think this box office-busting summer could very well ripple through the fall when it comes to getting butts in seats.
Now on to the rest as we tackle the latest bonkers “Spider-Man” box office, how Paramount plans to release 30 movies a year, the resurrection of “Coyote vs. Acme” and more in this week’s Reel to Real column.
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Box Office: ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Set to Pass ‘Avatar 2’ With $2.33 Billion
Sony/Marvel Studios’ “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” passed $2.33 billion at the global box office after its fifth weekend atop the charts, putting it on the verge of overtaking the global run of the 2022 hit “Avatar: The Way of Water” in the process.
Domestically, the smash-hit Marvel film added $22 million to bring its U.S./Canada total to $891 million, putting it $45 million away from the unadjusted all-time domestic record of $936 million set by “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” in 2015.
“Brand New Day” will have the distinction of being the highest-grossing film in U.S. theaters every day in August save for Aug. 21, the opening day of fellow Sony release “Insidious: Out of the Further.”
Just over the seventh weekend of Universal’s “The Odyssey” for the No. 2 spot this weekend is Ketchup/Warner Animation Group’s “Coyote vs. Acme” with an estimated $15.9 million opening from 3,573 locations. Produced on a $60 million budget and initially set for release in 2023, “Coyote vs. Acme” was nearly shelved by Warner Bros. for a tax break following its merger with Discovery, but was purchased by Ketchup Entertainment for $50 million after social media backlash.
With a smaller marketing budget than it would have had under Warner Bros. and an end-of-summer release date, it’s impossible to extrapolate from this weekend what “Coyote vs. Acme” could have made had it come out under usual circumstances. However, those who have seen the film are raving about it with Rotten Tomatoes scores of 95% critics and 94% audience while “Coyote” joins “The Iron Giant” and “The Lego Movie” as just the third Warner Bros.-produced animated film to earn an A on CinemaScore. We will see if that word-of-mouth, combined with the upcoming Labor Day weekend, can give the film some Roadrunner legs.
“The Odyssey” is in third with $14.3 million domestic and $48.6 million overseas, bringing the film’s domestic total to $563.8 million and its global total past $1.5 billion. It has now passed the unadjusted $1.51 billion total of “Furious 7” to become Universal’s second highest grossing movie in history and needs approximately $120 million to pass “Jurassic World” for the studio record.
“Insidious: Out of the Further” is in fourth with $10.1 million in its second weekend, a 60% drop from its opening to bring the $18 million Screen Gems/Stage 6/Blumhouse-Atomic Monster co-prod to $43.6 million domestic and $110 million worldwide.
Completing the top 5 is 20th Century’s “The Dog Stars,” a post-apocalyptic drama starring Jacob Elordi and Josh Brolin and directed by Ridley Scott. Produced on a $70 million budget, weak critical and audience reception have turned this film into a bomb with an opening weekend of just $8 million domestic and $19.8 million worldwide. The film earned a C+ on CinemaScore and has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 40% critics and 70% audience. – Jeremy Fuster
The Spotlight
In its bid to push its merger with Warner Bros. through, Paramount is promising it will release 30 films a year between the two studios once they’re combined. But is this actually feasible? Drew Taylor and Jeremy Fuster spoke to producers and Hollywood insiders to get the scoop on what, exactly, a 30-films-a-year slate looks like. Read the full story here.
New Releases
How ‘Coyote vs. Acme’ Came Back From the Dead: Two years ago, our Drew Taylor broke the news that “Coyote vs. Acme” was in danger of never being seen. Now, he’s got the story on its resurrection and release.
RIP Dolly: Dolly Parton was quite possibly an actual angel. William Bibbiani writes a beautiful ode to Parton’s onscreen roles.
Venice Drama: The Venice Film Festival hasn’t even started yet and already there’s drama over its jury press conference.
The Truth About “Heat 2”: Another scoop on the “Heat 2” front courtesy of Drew Taylor, this time about “Obsession” breakout Inde Navarrette.
The Making of a Bomb: We spoke with “Boorman and the Devil” director David Kittredge about his acclaimed new documentary chronicling the making of “Exorcist II.”
Ali G Boycott: A backlash is brewing against Sacha Baron Cohen and Amazon MGM’s Ali G movie.
Concession Stand
“Days of Thunder 2” is happening. Tom Cruise will return alongside Anne Hathaway as Paramount sets a 2028 release.
In addition to owning Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Deadline, Rolling Stone and Billboard, Penske Media just bought full control of SXSW too.
Check out the trailer for “Trust Me, I’m a Doctor,” starring Kal Penn as the doctor looking after Anna Nicole Smith at the time she died.
Someone on the Focus marketing team decided to boost the Andrew Garfield historical drama “The Uprising” by adding a “Robin Hood” tagline, despite the film not being a Robin Hood movie. The internet went nuts. The tagline has now been removed. Yeesh.
Annapurna, which was behind this year’s “I Love Boosters” and “The Invite,” laid off 30 staffers.
Warner Bros. is developing a live-action take on “The Flintstones” with Ryan Gosling. Alrighty then.
Janus Films and Criterion will release Paul Thomas Anderson’s concert film about Geese frontman Cameron Winter.
Streaming Corner
- “Toy Story 5” will be streaming on Disney+ on Sept. 23, a whopping 96 days after it first hit theaters. That’s a hefty theatrical window that powered the sequel to $1.1 billion worldwide. Now watch it become one of the most-streamed films of the year.
What I’m Watching
After it hit HBO Max recently, I decided to finally catch up with “Mother Mary,” David Lowery’s spooky psychodrama starring Anne Hathaway as a Taylor Swift-like pop superstar and Michaela Coel as her estranged creative companion. It’s a big swing, as most Lowery movies are, and I admire the fact that he refuses to make the same film twice. Creepy, open-hearted stuff.
